Singapore private home price growth slows to 1.1% in Q2

The growth rate was at 1.4% in the previous quarter.

According to OrangeTee, private residential prices experienced a slower growth in the second quarter of this year. This trend was consistent with the prevailing sluggishness seen in other property segments such as the industrial, commercial, and rental markets.

The URA property price index (PPI) released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) rose by a smaller rate of 1.1 per cent in Q2 2024, reflecting a further easing from the 1.4 per cent growth seen in Q1 2024. 

For the first half of 2024, prices grew by 2.5 per cent, which is much lower than the 3.1 per cent in 1H 2023 and the 4.2 per cent in 1H 2022. 

Here’s more from OrangeTee:

The slower overall price growth may be due to the smaller price gains for both the landed and non-landed private homes.

Prices of non-landed properties – or condos and apartments – climbed by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter, down from the 1.0 per cent gain in the first quarter of 2024. Landed prices similarly rose by a smaller pace of 1.8 per cent in Q2, down from the 2.6 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.

Among the sub-markets, prices of condominiums and apartments in the luxury or the core central region (CCR) dipped marginally by 0.2 per cent, while prices in the suburbs or outside the central region (OCR) registered marginal gains of 0.3 per cent. Prices increased the most by 2.2 per cent in the city fringe or the rest of central region (RCR). 

Reasons behind the slower overall price growth

We observed that many consumers exercised greater caution in their home-buying decisions and were more restrained in their affordability due to the high interest rates and the lingering effects of inflation. As a result, many were not willing to pay very high prices for homes at the moment, which may have impacted the overall property price growth.  

The limited housing options available to consumers were another significant factor contributing to the slower price growth. Last quarter, there were fewer new homes launched for sale, leading to a smaller housing supply. This scarcity of new homes has resulted in a significant decline in new home sales, which in turn has put downward pressure on the overall price index since new homes typically command higher prices in the market. Therefore, the decline in new home sales last quarter had a pronounced effect on property price growth.

According to URA Realis data downloaded on 01 July 2024. The number of new home sales (excluding executive condominiums or EC) plunged by 41.4 per cent from 1,158 units in Q1 2024 to 679 units in Q2 2024. In contrast, resale transactions rose by 8.1 per cent from 2,844 units to 3,073 units over the same period. Consequently, resale transactions formed a higher proportion of sales at 76.4 per cent in Q2 2024, up from 65.8 per cent in Q1 2024,  while new sales dipped to 16.9 per cent from 26.8 per cent over the same period. 

Further, there were fewer private homes sold at higher price tags. For instance, the number of non-landed homes excluding EC sold for at least S$3 million decreased slightly from 395 units in Q1 2024 to 384 units in Q2 2024. Private homes transacted for at least S$5 million had similarly dropped from 80 units to 74 units in Q2 2024.
 

Outlook

Property price growth may remain stable for the next two quarters as consumers continue to exercise financial prudence, owing to the likelihood of interest rates not declining as rapidly as previously projected. We have adjusted our full-year price forecast for 2024 from 3 to 6 per cent to 4.5 to 6 per cent.

However, we anticipate an increase in market activities as several prominent projects are expected to be launched in the coming months. Moreover, the global economy is gradually strengthening, and the hiring outlook is expected to improve in the second half of the year. Therefore, there could be an increase in sales volume in the second half of the year.